April 2024 was the first halving with spot ETFs running. ETF demand ran about 4.6x new issuance — and the cycle still returned 92%, against 688% last time.
TL;DR. The April 2024 halving was the first to happen with US spot Bitcoin ETFs running. In Q1 2024 the funds took in $224.7m a day across 54 sessions — about 4.6 times the dollar value of new issuance at the quarter's average price. After the halving cut issuance to ~450 BTC a day, flows fell to $130.2m a day and the ratio held at roughly 4.1. The price took eighteen months to peak, closing at $124,720 on 6 October 2025 — +92% from the halving day, against +688% in the 2020 cycle. The ETF wrapper did not repeal the law of diminishing cycle returns, and by 2026 it stopped supporting the price at all.
Contents · 8 sections
Bitcoin ETFsNet flow Fri 9 Oct+$21.1MWhat the halving changed mechanically
Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, and cut the block subsidy in half. On 20 April 2024 the reward went from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. At about 144 blocks a day that took new issuance from roughly 900 BTC a day to 450.
What made 2024 different is who was on the other side. Earlier halvings happened in markets dominated by spot exchanges and retail; in 2024 a set of US-listed funds was absorbing a large and publicly counted amount of bitcoin every business day.
The supply-demand math, and why the ratio moves
Before the halving. Across the 54 trading sessions of Q1 2024 the US spot funds took in $12,132m net, or $224.7m a day. New issuance was ~900 BTC a day. What that is worth in dollars depends entirely on which price you use, and this is where most published versions of this calculation go wrong:
- At the quarter's average close of $53,578, issuance was $48.2m a day → ETF demand was 4.6× supply.
- At the quarter's high close of $73,135, issuance was $65.8m a day → 3.4×.
So the honest statement is "roughly three to five times", not a single confident multiple. Anyone quoting a precise figure has picked a price and not told you which.
After the halving. From 22 April to 31 December 2024, across 176 sessions, net flow averaged $130.2m a day against 450 BTC of issuance. At the period's average close of $70,344 that is $31.7m of new supply a day, so the ratio was 4.1× — essentially unchanged, because flows fell by about as much as issuance did. The imbalance survived the halving; it did not widen.
What the price actually did
- Q1 2024: $44,973 on 2 January to $73,135 on 13 March, the quarter's high close. This ran on ETF launch demand, ahead of the halving.
- Halving day, 20 April 2024: closed at $64,968.87.
- Halving to end-September 2024: range-bound between $53,950 and $71,432 on closing prices. Flows decelerated and the supply cut produced nothing visible.
- Q4 2024: broke out, peaking at $106,137 on 17 December and closing the year at $93,354.
- Q1 2025: high close of $106,159 on 21 January, then down.
- The cycle top: $124,720 close on 6 October 2025, an intraday $126,296 — just inside the eighteen-month window from the halving.
How this cycle compares
| Halving | Close on halving day | Best close within 18 months | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2016 | $657.61 | $19,650.01 (16 Dec 2017) | +2,888% |
| 11 May 2020 | $8,572.40 | $67,554.84 (8 Nov 2021) | +688% |
| 20 Apr 2024 | $64,968.87 | $124,720.09 (6 Oct 2025) | +92% |
The 2012 halving is missing because we cannot source it from an exchange whose record we can check — Coinbase's BTC-USD history begins in 2014, and second-hand price tables for 2012 disagree with each other. Three cycles is enough to make the point anyway.
The reason for the decay is arithmetic, not sentiment. Bitcoin cost 99 times more on the 2024 halving day than on the 2016 one. The same dollar of buying moves the price by a proportionally smaller amount, so a cycle that absorbed record capital still produced the smallest percentage gain on record. The ETF era did not change this; it is the clearest illustration of it.
The part the halving thesis does not cover
What happened after the peak is the most useful data in this article, because it is the first time the ETF bid has been tested in reverse.
| Period | Sessions | Net flow | Per session |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 245 | +$35.25bn | +$144m |
| 2025 | 250 | +$21.35bn | +$85m |
| 2026, to 24 September | 183 | +$0.70bn | +$4m |
Cumulatively the complex is +$57.3bn over 678 sessions since 11 January 2024. But the 2026 run rate is 3% of 2024's. BlackRock's own Q2 2026 10-Q describes the move plainly: "After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, the price of bitcoin declined to below $60,000 in June 2026, representing a drawdown of more than 50%."
So the structural story — "ETFs absorb multiples of all new issuance, therefore the price floor rises" — held for two years and then stopped explaining anything. A four-times-issuance bid does not prevent a 50% drawdown, because issuance was never the marginal seller. Existing holders are.
What 2028 might look like
The next halving is expected in 2028 and will cut issuance to about 225 BTC a day. Two things follow. The supply effect keeps shrinking in relative terms: at any plausible price, 225 BTC a day is small against daily ETF flow even at 2026's depressed rate. And the flow itself, now the variable that matters, has proven capable of falling to roughly zero with no change in the issuance schedule.
The practical reading: watch the daily creations and redemptions rather than the block reward. Ours are on the Bitcoin ETF flows page, the way to read them is in how to read Bitcoin ETF flows, and the one-number summary of the last month across assets is the Crypto ETF Flow Index.
FAQ
How does the Bitcoin halving affect ETF flows?
It does not affect flows directly — it changes what flows are being measured against. The April 2024 halving cut new issuance from about 900 BTC a day to 450. ETF net flow fell in the same period, from $224.7m a day in Q1 2024 to $130.2m a day for the rest of the year, so the ratio of demand to new supply stayed around four times.
How much were Bitcoin ETFs buying compared with new supply?
In Q1 2024, $224.7m a day of net inflow against roughly 900 BTC a day of issuance. At the quarter's average close of $53,578 that is 4.6 times new supply; at the quarter's high close of $73,135 it is 3.4 times. The ratio depends on which price you pick, which is why a single precise multiple should be treated with suspicion.
Did the 2024 halving cause the rally?
Not on its own, and not quickly. Bitcoin closed the halving day at $64,969 and then traded between $53,950 and $71,432 for the next five months. The breakout came in Q4 2024 and the cycle high was $124,720 on 6 October 2025 — about eighteen months later. Separating the halving from ETF flows and macro conditions in that move is not possible with this data.
How does the 2024 cycle compare with earlier halvings?
It returned far less. Measured on daily closes from halving day to the best close within eighteen months: +2,888% after July 2016, +688% after May 2020, and +92% after April 2024. Bitcoin cost 99 times more at the 2024 halving than at the 2016 one, so the same capital produces a much smaller percentage move.
Do ETF inflows put a floor under the Bitcoin price?
The 2026 evidence says no. ETF flows ran at $144m a session in 2024, $85m in 2025 and $4m in 2026 to 24 September, and BlackRock's own 10-Q records bitcoin falling from about $126,000 in October 2025 to below $60,000 in June 2026 — a drawdown of more than 50%. Buying multiples of new issuance does not offset selling by existing holders.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
It is expected in 2028, cutting issuance to roughly 225 BTC a day. In relative terms the supply effect keeps shrinking, while ETF flow — the variable that actually moved this cycle — has already shown it can fall close to zero regardless of the block reward.
Sources and further reading
- cryptoetf.today, daily US spot Bitcoin ETF flow series, 11 January 2024 to 24 September 2026 (678 sessions).
- Coinbase Exchange, BTC-USD daily candles — all halving-day and peak closes quoted above.
- SEC EDGAR, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 — the October 2025 high and the 2026 drawdown.
- Bitcoin protocol: block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks; 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC at block 840,000 on 20 April 2024.
- Internal: How to read Bitcoin ETF flows, CEFI index explained, Bitcoin ETF year-two performance.
For information only. Not investment advice.
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